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Table 3

Associations (HRs, 95% CIs, and P values) of prior microvascular complications with subsequent risk of CVD events (A) and MACE (B)

Unadjusted modelsMinimally adjusted models*Fully adjusted models^
HR (95% CI)P valueHR (95% CI)P valueHR (95% CI)P value
A. CVD       
 PDR and/or CSME 1.98 (1.51, 2.58) <0.0001 1.47 (1.11, 1.94) 0.0069 1.13 (0.84, 1.53) 0.4033 
 PDR 1.91 (1.44, 2.55) <0.0001 1.44 (1.06, 1.95) 0.0187 1.09 (0.79, 1.51) 0.5852 
 CSME 1.86 (1.40, 2.46) <0.0001 1.33 (0.99, 1.77) 0.0562 1.03 (0.77, 1.40) 0.8244 
 Three-step progression 1.18 (0.90, 1.55) 0.2391 0.89 (0.66, 1.19) 0.4329 0.76 (0.56, 1.03) 0.0816 
 Sustained AER ≥30 mg/24 h and/or eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 2.36 (1.82, 3.05) <0.0001 1.99 (1.51, 2.61) <0.0001 1.54 (1.15, 2.07) 0.0038 
 AER ≥300 mg/24 h 2.13 (1.51, 3.01) <0.0001 1.67 (1.16, 2.41) 0.0059 1.15 (0.78, 1.70) 0.4884 
 Sustained AER ≥30 mg/24 h 2.22 (1.71, 2.87) <0.0001 1.91 (1.45, 2.52) <0.0001 1.47 (1.09, 1.97) 0.0119 
 eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 3.18 (2.15, 4.69) <0.0001 2.12 (1.43, 3.15) 0.0002 1.48 (0.97, 2.23) 0.0658 
 CAN 1.91 (1.45, 2.51) <0.0001 1.36 (1.03, 1.80) 0.0313 1.11 (0.83, 1.49) 0.4767 
 Presence of retinal and kidney disease+ 1.81 (1.54, 2.12) <0.0001 1.55 (1.30, 1.85) <0.0001 1.28 (1.05, 1.56) 0.0127 
B. MACE       
 PDR and/or CSME 2.45 (1.69, 3.56) <0.0001 1.61 (1.09, 2.40) 0.0178 1.29 (0.85, 1.95) 0.2342 
 PDR 2.09 (1.41, 3.11) 0.0002 1.34 (0.88, 2.04) 0.1735 1.00 (0.64, 1.56) 0.9877 
 CSME 2.22 (1.52, 3.25) <0.0001 1.39 (0.93, 2.07) 0.1087 1.16 (0.77, 1.75) 0.4695 
 Three-step progression 1.49 (0.99, 2.23) 0.0541 1.00 (0.65, 1.54) 0.9866 0.88 (0.56, 1.36) 0.5561 
 Sustained AER ≥30 mg/24 h and/or eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 2.59 (1.80, 3.72) <0.0001 1.93 (1.31, 2.85) 0.0009 1.43 (0.94, 2.18) 0.0913 
 AER ≥300 mg/24 h 2.99 (1.94, 4.61) <0.0001 2.12 (1.33, 3.38) 0.0015 1.56 (0.94, 2.59) 0.0878 
 Sustained AER ≥30 mg/24 h 2.51 (1.74, 3.61) <0.0001 1.93 (1.30, 2.85) 0.0010 1.41 (0.92, 2.14) 0.1134 
 eGFR <60 3.63 (2.20, 5.97) <0.0001 2.06 (1.23, 3.44) 0.0058 1.54 (0.90, 2.65) 0.1182 
 CAN 2.23 (1.52, 3.26) <0.0001 1.49 (1.01, 2.20) 0.0471 1.14 (0.76, 1.73) 0.5195 
 Presence of retinal and kidney disease+ 2.03 (1.62, 2.54) <0.0001 1.59 (1.24, 2.04) 0.0003 1.31 (0.99, 1.73) 0.0572 
Unadjusted modelsMinimally adjusted models*Fully adjusted models^
HR (95% CI)P valueHR (95% CI)P valueHR (95% CI)P value
A. CVD       
 PDR and/or CSME 1.98 (1.51, 2.58) <0.0001 1.47 (1.11, 1.94) 0.0069 1.13 (0.84, 1.53) 0.4033 
 PDR 1.91 (1.44, 2.55) <0.0001 1.44 (1.06, 1.95) 0.0187 1.09 (0.79, 1.51) 0.5852 
 CSME 1.86 (1.40, 2.46) <0.0001 1.33 (0.99, 1.77) 0.0562 1.03 (0.77, 1.40) 0.8244 
 Three-step progression 1.18 (0.90, 1.55) 0.2391 0.89 (0.66, 1.19) 0.4329 0.76 (0.56, 1.03) 0.0816 
 Sustained AER ≥30 mg/24 h and/or eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 2.36 (1.82, 3.05) <0.0001 1.99 (1.51, 2.61) <0.0001 1.54 (1.15, 2.07) 0.0038 
 AER ≥300 mg/24 h 2.13 (1.51, 3.01) <0.0001 1.67 (1.16, 2.41) 0.0059 1.15 (0.78, 1.70) 0.4884 
 Sustained AER ≥30 mg/24 h 2.22 (1.71, 2.87) <0.0001 1.91 (1.45, 2.52) <0.0001 1.47 (1.09, 1.97) 0.0119 
 eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 3.18 (2.15, 4.69) <0.0001 2.12 (1.43, 3.15) 0.0002 1.48 (0.97, 2.23) 0.0658 
 CAN 1.91 (1.45, 2.51) <0.0001 1.36 (1.03, 1.80) 0.0313 1.11 (0.83, 1.49) 0.4767 
 Presence of retinal and kidney disease+ 1.81 (1.54, 2.12) <0.0001 1.55 (1.30, 1.85) <0.0001 1.28 (1.05, 1.56) 0.0127 
B. MACE       
 PDR and/or CSME 2.45 (1.69, 3.56) <0.0001 1.61 (1.09, 2.40) 0.0178 1.29 (0.85, 1.95) 0.2342 
 PDR 2.09 (1.41, 3.11) 0.0002 1.34 (0.88, 2.04) 0.1735 1.00 (0.64, 1.56) 0.9877 
 CSME 2.22 (1.52, 3.25) <0.0001 1.39 (0.93, 2.07) 0.1087 1.16 (0.77, 1.75) 0.4695 
 Three-step progression 1.49 (0.99, 2.23) 0.0541 1.00 (0.65, 1.54) 0.9866 0.88 (0.56, 1.36) 0.5561 
 Sustained AER ≥30 mg/24 h and/or eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 2.59 (1.80, 3.72) <0.0001 1.93 (1.31, 2.85) 0.0009 1.43 (0.94, 2.18) 0.0913 
 AER ≥300 mg/24 h 2.99 (1.94, 4.61) <0.0001 2.12 (1.33, 3.38) 0.0015 1.56 (0.94, 2.59) 0.0878 
 Sustained AER ≥30 mg/24 h 2.51 (1.74, 3.61) <0.0001 1.93 (1.30, 2.85) 0.0010 1.41 (0.92, 2.14) 0.1134 
 eGFR <60 3.63 (2.20, 5.97) <0.0001 2.06 (1.23, 3.44) 0.0058 1.54 (0.90, 2.65) 0.1182 
 CAN 2.23 (1.52, 3.26) <0.0001 1.49 (1.01, 2.20) 0.0471 1.14 (0.76, 1.73) 0.5195 
 Presence of retinal and kidney disease+ 2.03 (1.62, 2.54) <0.0001 1.59 (1.24, 2.04) 0.0003 1.31 (0.99, 1.73) 0.0572 

Associations with P values <0.05 are reported in boldface.

*

Adjusted for baseline age and mean updated HbA1c.

^

CVD: adjusted for baseline age, mean updated HbA1c, mean updated systolic blood pressure, current triglycerides, mean updated pulse, baseline duration, use of ACE inhibitors, family history of MI, and mean updated LDL; MACE: adjusted for baseline age, mean updated HbA1c, mean updated pulse, current triglycerides, mean updated systolic BP, current smoking status, baseline duration, use of ACE inhibitors, and current LDL. See ref. 11. +Presence of retinal and kidney disease is a quantitative variable defined as 0, no prior complications; 1, prior (PDR and/or CSME) or (severe albuminuria (AER ≥300 mg/24 h) and/or sustained eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2) but not both; and 2, prior (PDR and/or CSME) and (severe albuminuria (AER ≥300 mg/24 h) and/or sustained eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2).

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