American Diabetes Association

Table 2—

Predictors and ORs from the best models predicting 1996 macro- and microvascular, infectious, and metabolic events, derivation data set

M/M events (n = 1,997)			ID events (n = 810)			MET events (n = 187)
Predictor	OR	Numerical score	Predictor	OR	Numerical score	Predictor	OR	Numerical score
Outpatient M/M diag-			Inpatient events (1994–1995)			Inpatient MET events (1994–
noses (1994–1995)			No	1.00		1995)
No	1.00		Yes	2.64^*	3	No	1.00
Yes	2.70^*	3	Outpatient M/M diagnoses			Yes	6.90^*	3
Inpatient M/M events			(1994–1995)			Diabetes treatment
(1994–1995)			No	1.00		Diet only (reference)	1.00
No	1.00		Yes	1.45^*	1	Oral agents only	0.40^†	−3
Yes	1.70^*	2	Age (one decade)	1.34^*	^‡	Insulin and oral agents	0.52
Age (one decade)	1.24^*	^‡	Number of visits to specialists			Insulin only	1.60^†	2
Antihypertensives			None (reference)	1.00		Mean HbA_1c (1994–1995)
None (reference)	1.00		1–3	1.09		<7.0% (reference)	1.00
One	1.21^†	1	4–6	1.31		7–8%	1.29
Two or more	1.58^*	2	≥7	1.67^*	2	9–10%	1.93
Serum creatinine			Serum creatinine			≥10%	5.07^*	3
<1.0 mg/dl	1.00		<1.0 (reference)	1.00		Missing	2.29
1.0–1.3	1.16		1.0–1.3	1.13		Age (one decade)	0.81^*	^‡
1.3–1.5	1.24		1.3–1.5	1.74^§	2	Emergency department visit
1.5–2.0	1.46^§	1	1.5–2.0	1.85^*	2	(1994–1995)
>2.0	1.82^*	2	>2.0	2.49^*	3	No	1.00
Missing	0.86		Missing	0.78		Yes	2.04^§	3
Diabetes treatment			Outpatient ID diagnoses			Obesity status
Diet only (reference)	1.00		(1994–1995)			Lean (reference)	1.00
Oral agents only	1.09		No	1.00		Obese	0.39^*	−3
Insulin and oral	1.06		Yes	1.81^*	2	Morbidly obese	0.21^*	−3
agents			Nonmaternity hospitalizations			BMI missing	1.04
Insulin only	1.42^*	1	(1993–1995)			Race
Mean HbA_1c (1994–			No	1.00		White (reference)	1.00
1995)			Yes	1.37^§	1	Black	1.00
<7.0% (reference)	1.00		Treatment			Hispanic/Latino	0.67
7–8%	1.11		Diet only (reference)	1.00		Asian	0.22^†	−3
8–10%	1.33^§	1	Oral agents only	1.02		Native American/Other	1.00
≥10%	1.70^*	2	Insulin and oral agents	1.41^†	1	Missing	0.90
Missing	1.22		Insulin only	1.47^§	1	Inpatient M/M events (1994–
Albuminuria						1995)
Absent	1.00					No	1.00
Present	1.25^§	1				Yes	1.76^†	2
Missing	1.24^§	1				Sex
Primary care visits						Female	1.00
None (reference)	1.00					Male	0.61^†	−2
1–3	1.13					Smoking status
4–6	1.17					Nonsmoker (reference)	1.00
>7	1.43^†	1				Ex-smoker	1.02
Outpatient diagnosis						Current smoker	1.58^‖	2
of obesity						Missing	0.72
No	1.00					Use of antilipemic
Yes	0.73^§	–				medications
Outpatient ID diagnoses						No	1.00
No	1.00					Yes	0.48^§	−3
Yes	1.25^§	–1				Mean LDL cholesterol
Mean total cholesterol						<160 mg/dl (reference)	1.00
<240 mg/dl (reference)	1.00					≥160 mg/dl	2.02^†	3
≥240 mg/dl	1.27^§	1				Missing	1.04
Missing	1.07
Self-report of neuropathy
No	1.00
Yes	1.26^§	1
Missing	1.06
Education
<9 years	1.11
9–11 years	0.89
High-school graduate	1.00
Some college	0.99
College graduate	0.97
Graduate school	0.76^†	−1
Missing	1.08
Type of diabetes
Type 2 (reference)	1.00
Type 1	0.64^†	−2
Uncertain	0.71
Missing	1.02
Sex
Female	1.00
Male	1.13

M/M events (n = 1,997)			ID events (n = 810)			MET events (n = 187)
Predictor	OR	Numerical score	Predictor	OR	Numerical score	Predictor	OR	Numerical score
Outpatient M/M diag-			Inpatient events (1994–1995)			Inpatient MET events (1994–
noses (1994–1995)			No	1.00		1995)
No	1.00		Yes	2.64^*	3	No	1.00
Yes	2.70^*	3	Outpatient M/M diagnoses			Yes	6.90^*	3
Inpatient M/M events			(1994–1995)			Diabetes treatment
(1994–1995)			No	1.00		Diet only (reference)	1.00
No	1.00		Yes	1.45^*	1	Oral agents only	0.40^†	−3
Yes	1.70^*	2	Age (one decade)	1.34^*	^‡	Insulin and oral agents	0.52
Age (one decade)	1.24^*	^‡	Number of visits to specialists			Insulin only	1.60^†	2
Antihypertensives			None (reference)	1.00		Mean HbA_1c (1994–1995)
None (reference)	1.00		1–3	1.09		<7.0% (reference)	1.00
One	1.21^†	1	4–6	1.31		7–8%	1.29
Two or more	1.58^*	2	≥7	1.67^*	2	9–10%	1.93
Serum creatinine			Serum creatinine			≥10%	5.07^*	3
<1.0 mg/dl	1.00		<1.0 (reference)	1.00		Missing	2.29
1.0–1.3	1.16		1.0–1.3	1.13		Age (one decade)	0.81^*	^‡
1.3–1.5	1.24		1.3–1.5	1.74^§	2	Emergency department visit
1.5–2.0	1.46^§	1	1.5–2.0	1.85^*	2	(1994–1995)
>2.0	1.82^*	2	>2.0	2.49^*	3	No	1.00
Missing	0.86		Missing	0.78		Yes	2.04^§	3
Diabetes treatment			Outpatient ID diagnoses			Obesity status
Diet only (reference)	1.00		(1994–1995)			Lean (reference)	1.00
Oral agents only	1.09		No	1.00		Obese	0.39^*	−3
Insulin and oral	1.06		Yes	1.81^*	2	Morbidly obese	0.21^*	−3
agents			Nonmaternity hospitalizations			BMI missing	1.04
Insulin only	1.42^*	1	(1993–1995)			Race
Mean HbA_1c (1994–			No	1.00		White (reference)	1.00
1995)			Yes	1.37^§	1	Black	1.00
<7.0% (reference)	1.00		Treatment			Hispanic/Latino	0.67
7–8%	1.11		Diet only (reference)	1.00		Asian	0.22^†	−3
8–10%	1.33^§	1	Oral agents only	1.02		Native American/Other	1.00
≥10%	1.70^*	2	Insulin and oral agents	1.41^†	1	Missing	0.90
Missing	1.22		Insulin only	1.47^§	1	Inpatient M/M events (1994–
Albuminuria						1995)
Absent	1.00					No	1.00
Present	1.25^§	1				Yes	1.76^†	2
Missing	1.24^§	1				Sex
Primary care visits						Female	1.00
None (reference)	1.00					Male	0.61^†	−2
1–3	1.13					Smoking status
4–6	1.17					Nonsmoker (reference)	1.00
>7	1.43^†	1				Ex-smoker	1.02
Outpatient diagnosis						Current smoker	1.58^‖	2
of obesity						Missing	0.72
No	1.00					Use of antilipemic
Yes	0.73^§	–				medications
Outpatient ID diagnoses						No	1.00
No	1.00					Yes	0.48^§	−3
Yes	1.25^§	–1				Mean LDL cholesterol
Mean total cholesterol						<160 mg/dl (reference)	1.00
<240 mg/dl (reference)	1.00					≥160 mg/dl	2.02^†	3
≥240 mg/dl	1.27^§	1				Missing	1.04
Missing	1.07
Self-report of neuropathy
No	1.00
Yes	1.26^§	1
Missing	1.06
Education
<9 years	1.11
9–11 years	0.89
High-school graduate	1.00
Some college	0.99
College graduate	0.97
Graduate school	0.76^†	−1
Missing	1.08
Type of diabetes
Type 2 (reference)	1.00
Type 1	0.64^†	−2
Uncertain	0.71
Missing	1.02
Sex
Female	1.00
Male	1.13

P < 0.0001;

†

P < 0.01;

P < 0.001;

‖

P < 0.05;

‡

age was treated as a continuous variable and scored as follows: macro- and microvascular model 19–29 years = 0, 30–39 years = 1, 40–59 years = 2, ≥60 years = 3; infectious disease model 19–29 years = 0, 30–39 years = 1, 40–49 years = 2, ≥50 years = 3; metabolic model 19–29 years = 0; 30–39 years = −1, 40–59 years = −2, ≥60 years = −3; ID, infectious disease; MET, metabolic; M/M, macro- and microvascular.

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