Overview of key statistics and results of projection scenarios
| . | 2015 . | Projection for 2030 . | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline scenario . | Past trends scenario . | Target scenario . | ||
| Included countries | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 |
| Population (billion) | 7.25 | 8.39 | 8.39 | 8.39 |
| Global GDP (trillion $)a | 73.53 | 115.30 | 115.30 | 115.30 |
| Prevalence, age-group 20–79 years (%) | 8.8 (8.4–9.5) | 10.0 (9.5–10.7) | 11.8 (11.2–12.7) | 9.8 (9.4–10.5) |
| Deaths in 1,000s, age-group 20–65 years | 3,148 (3,013–3,327) | 4,181 (4,001–4,412) | 4,566 (4,364–4,822) | 2,787 (2,668–2,941) |
| Total costs (trillion $)a | 1.32 (1.28–1.37) | 2.25 (2.18–2.34) | 2.48 (2.41–2.58) | 2.12 (2.06–2.20) |
| Direct costs (trillion $)a | 0.86 (0.83–0.89) | 1.51 (1.47–1.57) | 1.70 (1.65–1.77) | 1.50 (1.46–1.56) |
| Indirect costs (trillion $)a | 0.46 (0.45–0.48) | 0.73 (0.71–0.77) | 0.78 (0.75–0.82) | 0.61 (0.60–0.65) |
| Mortality (%)b | 45.7 | 48.1 | 46.4 | 38.3 |
| Dropout (%)b | 48.3 | 45.8 | 47.1 | 54.5 |
| Absenteeism (%)b | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.6 |
| Presenteeism (%)b | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 |
| Share indirect costs (%)c | 35.0 | 32.7 | 31.3 | 29.0 |
| Total costs/global GDP (%) | 1.8 (1.7–1.9) | 1.9 (1.9–2.0) | 2.2 (2.1–2.2) | 1.8 (1.8–1.9) |
| Mean (total costs/GDP) (%) | 1.4 (1.4–1.4) | 1.6 (1.6–1.7) | 1.9 (1.8–1.9) | 1.5 (1.5–1.5) |
| High-income countries only | 1.2 (1.2–1.3) | 1.3 (1.3–1.4) | 1.4 (1.4–1.5) | 1.3 (1.3–1.3) |
| Middle-income countries only | 1.7 (1.6–1.7) | 2.0 (1.9–2.1) | 2.3 (2.3–2.4) | 1.8 (1.8–1.9) |
| Low-income countries only | 0.7 (0.6–0.8) | 0.8 (0.8–1.0) | 1.0 (0.9–1.1) | 0.7 (0.7–0.8) |
| . | 2015 . | Projection for 2030 . | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline scenario . | Past trends scenario . | Target scenario . | ||
| Included countries | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 |
| Population (billion) | 7.25 | 8.39 | 8.39 | 8.39 |
| Global GDP (trillion $)a | 73.53 | 115.30 | 115.30 | 115.30 |
| Prevalence, age-group 20–79 years (%) | 8.8 (8.4–9.5) | 10.0 (9.5–10.7) | 11.8 (11.2–12.7) | 9.8 (9.4–10.5) |
| Deaths in 1,000s, age-group 20–65 years | 3,148 (3,013–3,327) | 4,181 (4,001–4,412) | 4,566 (4,364–4,822) | 2,787 (2,668–2,941) |
| Total costs (trillion $)a | 1.32 (1.28–1.37) | 2.25 (2.18–2.34) | 2.48 (2.41–2.58) | 2.12 (2.06–2.20) |
| Direct costs (trillion $)a | 0.86 (0.83–0.89) | 1.51 (1.47–1.57) | 1.70 (1.65–1.77) | 1.50 (1.46–1.56) |
| Indirect costs (trillion $)a | 0.46 (0.45–0.48) | 0.73 (0.71–0.77) | 0.78 (0.75–0.82) | 0.61 (0.60–0.65) |
| Mortality (%)b | 45.7 | 48.1 | 46.4 | 38.3 |
| Dropout (%)b | 48.3 | 45.8 | 47.1 | 54.5 |
| Absenteeism (%)b | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.6 |
| Presenteeism (%)b | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 |
| Share indirect costs (%)c | 35.0 | 32.7 | 31.3 | 29.0 |
| Total costs/global GDP (%) | 1.8 (1.7–1.9) | 1.9 (1.9–2.0) | 2.2 (2.1–2.2) | 1.8 (1.8–1.9) |
| Mean (total costs/GDP) (%) | 1.4 (1.4–1.4) | 1.6 (1.6–1.7) | 1.9 (1.8–1.9) | 1.5 (1.5–1.5) |
| High-income countries only | 1.2 (1.2–1.3) | 1.3 (1.3–1.4) | 1.4 (1.4–1.5) | 1.3 (1.3–1.3) |
| Middle-income countries only | 1.7 (1.6–1.7) | 2.0 (1.9–2.1) | 2.3 (2.3–2.4) | 1.8 (1.8–1.9) |
| Low-income countries only | 0.7 (0.6–0.8) | 0.8 (0.8–1.0) | 1.0 (0.9–1.1) | 0.7 (0.7–0.8) |
Data are presented as n unless indicated otherwise. Numbers in parentheses are 95% CI.
aAbsolute costs and GDP are expressed in terms of constant 2015 U.S. dollars.
bThe fraction of the respective indirect cost component in total indirect costs. 95% CI not shown.
cThe fraction of total costs allotted to indirect costs. 95% CI not shown.