American Diabetes Association

Table 3

AUC and J of each prediction model, together with ∆AUC and ∆J introduced by the newly added risk factor in each prediction model factor to predict any IA, IAA-first, or GADA-first at age of 6 years or progression to T1D at 3 years from the appearance of multiple autoantibodies

# of risk factors in the model	At age of 6 years															Progression to T1D at year 3
	Any IA					IAA-first					GADA-first					Progression to T1D at year 3
	Newly added risk factor	AUC	∆AUC	J	∆J	Newly added risk factor	AUC	∆AUC	J	∆J	Newly added risk factor	AUC	∆AUC	J	∆J	Newly added risk factor	AUC	∆AUC	J	∆J
1	Family history	0.552		0.100		Family history	0.560		0.115		rs3184504 (SH2B3)	0.587		0.129		Age at multiple IAs	0.668		0.321
2	HLA genotype	0.605	0.054	0.161	0.062	HLA genotype	0.639	0.080	0.191	0.076	rs2476601 (PTPN22)	0.606	0.019	0.183	0.054	Type of first autoantibody	0.672	0.004	0.310	−0.011
3	rs2476601 (PTPN22)	0.627	0.022	0.189	0.028	rs2476601 (PTPN22)	0.668	0.029	0.231	0.040	HLA genotype	0.631	0.025	0.183	−0.001	rs1534422	0.690	0.018	0.314	0.004
4	rs3184504 (SH2B3)	0.646	0.018	0.207	0.018	rs1004446 (INS)	0.679	0.011	0.276	0.045	Family history	0.655	0.024	0.236	0.053	Sex	0.704	0.014	0.364	0.050
5	rs1004446 (INS)	0.656	0.010	0.231	0.024	rs3184504 (SH2B3)	0.694	0.015	0.316	0.040	Weight z score at 12 months	0.674	0.018	0.253	0.017	rs2327832 (TNFAIP3)	0.702	−0.002	0.346	−0.018
6	Weight z score at 12 months	0.665	0.009	0.250	0.018	Sex	0.698	0.004	0.313	−0.002	rs12708716 (CLEC16A)	0.677	0.003	0.280	0.027	rs1004446 (INS)	0.707	0.005	0.355	0.009
7	rs2292239 (ERBB3)	0.671	0.006	0.250	0.001	Weight z score at 12 months	0.702	0.004	0.322	0.009	rs2292239 (ERBB3)	0.686	0.009	0.287	0.007	rs10517086	0.706	−0.002	0.352	−0.003
8	rs12708716 (CLEC16A)	0.673	0.002	0.252	0.002	rs4948088 (COBL)	0.706	0.004	0.326	0.004
9	Sex	0.675	0.002	0.250	−0.002	Probiotics introduction age	0.707	0.002	0.316	−0.010
10	rs4948088 (COBL)	0.675	0.000	0.248	−0.002
11	Probiotics introduction age	0.676	0.002	0.251	0.003
12	First infant formula type during the first 3 months of life	0.678	0.002	0.256	0.006

# of risk factors in the model	At age of 6 years															Progression to T1D at year 3
	Any IA					IAA-first					GADA-first					Progression to T1D at year 3
	Newly added risk factor	AUC	∆AUC	J	∆J	Newly added risk factor	AUC	∆AUC	J	∆J	Newly added risk factor	AUC	∆AUC	J	∆J	Newly added risk factor	AUC	∆AUC	J	∆J
1	Family history	0.552		0.100		Family history	0.560		0.115		rs3184504 (SH2B3)	0.587		0.129		Age at multiple IAs	0.668		0.321
2	HLA genotype	0.605	0.054	0.161	0.062	HLA genotype	0.639	0.080	0.191	0.076	rs2476601 (PTPN22)	0.606	0.019	0.183	0.054	Type of first autoantibody	0.672	0.004	0.310	−0.011
3	rs2476601 (PTPN22)	0.627	0.022	0.189	0.028	rs2476601 (PTPN22)	0.668	0.029	0.231	0.040	HLA genotype	0.631	0.025	0.183	−0.001	rs1534422	0.690	0.018	0.314	0.004
4	rs3184504 (SH2B3)	0.646	0.018	0.207	0.018	rs1004446 (INS)	0.679	0.011	0.276	0.045	Family history	0.655	0.024	0.236	0.053	Sex	0.704	0.014	0.364	0.050
5	rs1004446 (INS)	0.656	0.010	0.231	0.024	rs3184504 (SH2B3)	0.694	0.015	0.316	0.040	Weight z score at 12 months	0.674	0.018	0.253	0.017	rs2327832 (TNFAIP3)	0.702	−0.002	0.346	−0.018
6	Weight z score at 12 months	0.665	0.009	0.250	0.018	Sex	0.698	0.004	0.313	−0.002	rs12708716 (CLEC16A)	0.677	0.003	0.280	0.027	rs1004446 (INS)	0.707	0.005	0.355	0.009
7	rs2292239 (ERBB3)	0.671	0.006	0.250	0.001	Weight z score at 12 months	0.702	0.004	0.322	0.009	rs2292239 (ERBB3)	0.686	0.009	0.287	0.007	rs10517086	0.706	−0.002	0.352	−0.003
8	rs12708716 (CLEC16A)	0.673	0.002	0.252	0.002	rs4948088 (COBL)	0.706	0.004	0.326	0.004
9	Sex	0.675	0.002	0.250	−0.002	Probiotics introduction age	0.707	0.002	0.316	−0.010
10	rs4948088 (COBL)	0.675	0.000	0.248	−0.002
11	Probiotics introduction age	0.676	0.002	0.251	0.003
12	First infant formula type during the first 3 months of life	0.678	0.002	0.256	0.006

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