Comparison of multivariable logistic regression models with regard to the prediction of fast early renal decline in patients with type 2 diabetes during 6–12 years of follow-up
| . | Model 1 (reference) . | Model 2 . | Model 3 . | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline variables . | OR . | (95% CI) . | OR . | (95% CI) . | OR . | (95% CI) . |
| eGFR | 0.91 | (0.82–1.02) | 1.08 | (0.96–1.22) | 1.19 | (1.03–1.37) |
| Systolic BP | 1.34 | (1.13–1.57) | 1.37 | (1.15–1.62) | 1.38 | (1.16–1.64) |
| ACR | 1.83 | (1.54–2.19) | 1.50 | (1.25–1.81) | 1.27 | (1.04–1.56) |
| HbA1c | 1.19 | (1.08–1.32) | 1.20 | (1.08–1.34) | 1.14 | (1.02–1.27) |
| Fibrosis index | 1.98 | (1.60–2.43) | 1.63 | (1.30–2.04) | ||
| TNF-R1 | 1.15 | (0.91–1.44) | ||||
| KIM-1 | 1.36 | (1.12–1.64) | ||||
| EGF–to–MCP-1 ratio | 0.68 | (0.56–0.83) | ||||
| C statistic | 0.725 | 0.766 | 0.791 | |||
| ∆C statistic compared with model 1 | 0.041 (0.011–0.071) | 0.066 (0.031–0.100) | ||||
| Nagelkerke R2 | 0.144 | 0.208 | 0.250 | |||
| . | Model 1 (reference) . | Model 2 . | Model 3 . | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline variables . | OR . | (95% CI) . | OR . | (95% CI) . | OR . | (95% CI) . |
| eGFR | 0.91 | (0.82–1.02) | 1.08 | (0.96–1.22) | 1.19 | (1.03–1.37) |
| Systolic BP | 1.34 | (1.13–1.57) | 1.37 | (1.15–1.62) | 1.38 | (1.16–1.64) |
| ACR | 1.83 | (1.54–2.19) | 1.50 | (1.25–1.81) | 1.27 | (1.04–1.56) |
| HbA1c | 1.19 | (1.08–1.32) | 1.20 | (1.08–1.34) | 1.14 | (1.02–1.27) |
| Fibrosis index | 1.98 | (1.60–2.43) | 1.63 | (1.30–2.04) | ||
| TNF-R1 | 1.15 | (0.91–1.44) | ||||
| KIM-1 | 1.36 | (1.12–1.64) | ||||
| EGF–to–MCP-1 ratio | 0.68 | (0.56–0.83) | ||||
| C statistic | 0.725 | 0.766 | 0.791 | |||
| ∆C statistic compared with model 1 | 0.041 (0.011–0.071) | 0.066 (0.031–0.100) | ||||
| Nagelkerke R2 | 0.144 | 0.208 | 0.250 | |||
Model 1: reference; model 2: model 1 + fibrosis index; model 3: model 2 + other biomarkers (plasma TNF-R1, plasma KIM-1, and urinary EGF–to–MCP-1 ratio).
The effects of eGFR and systolic BP on fast renal decline were estimated per 10 mL/min/1.73 m2 and per 10 mmHg increase, respectively. The effect of HbA1c was estimated per 1% increase. The effects of ACR, the fibrosis index, plasma TNF-R1, plasma KIM-1, and the urinary EGF–to–MCP-1 ratio were estimated per one quartile increase.