To explore risks and associated mediation effects of developing chronic kidney disease (CKD) and heart failure (HF) in young- and usual-onset type 2 diabetes (T2D) between White Americans (WAs) and African Americans (AAs).


From U.S. medical records, 1,491,672 WAs and 31,133 AAs were identified and stratified by T2D age of onset (18–39, 40–49, 50–59, 60–70 years). Risks, mediation effects, and time to CKD and HF were evaluated, adjusting for time-varying confounders.


In the 18–39, 40–49, 50–59, 60–70 age-groups, the hazard ratios (of developing CKD and HF in AAs versus WAs were 1.21 (95% CI 1.17–1.26) and 2.21 (1.98–2.45), 1.25 (1.22–1.28) and 1.86 (1.75–1.97), 1.21 (1.19–1.24) and 1.54 (1.48–1.60), and 1.10 (1.08–1.12) and 1.11 (1.07–1.15), respectively. In AAs and WAs aged 18–39 years, time in years to CKD (8.7 [95% CI 8.2–9.1] and 9.7 [9.2–10.2]) and HF (10.3 [9.3–11.2] and 12.1 [10.6–13.5]) were, on average, 3.6 and 4.0 and 3.1 and 4.1 years longer compared with those diagnosed at age 60–70 years. Compared with females, AA males aged <60 years had an 11–49% higher CKD risk, while WA males aged <40 years had a 23% higher and those aged ≥50 years a 7–14% lower CKD risk, respectively. The mediation effects of CKD on the HF risk difference between ethnicities across age-groups (range 54–91%) were higher compared with those of HF on CKD risk difference between ethnicities across age-groups (13–39%).


Developing cardiorenal complications within an average of 10 years of young-onset T2DM and high mediation effects of CKD on HF call for revisiting guidelines on early diagnosis and proactive treatment strategies for effective management of cardiometabolic risk.

This article contains supplementary material online at https://doi.org/10.2337/figshare.19747249.

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